2021 NFL Week 7 Preview
A look at Week 7's slate of NFL games, plus a fantasy tid-bit for each game
I am previewing every NFL game (including a final score), and giving one bit of fantasy advice for each one this week.
Last Week’s Record: 9-5
Record To-Date: 9-5
Onto week 7!
(I wrote this post prior to the Thursday Night Football game tonight)
(3-3) Denver Broncos at (3-3) Cleveland Browns (-1.5 CLE, 40.5 total) | 8:30 PM Thursday
What a meh matchup under meh condititons (temperatures are in the low 60’s, under cloudy skies). What makes matters worse is that the Browns come into tonight’s Thursday Night Football game all banged-up on offense. They will be without the likes of quarterback Baker Mayfield (shoulder); their dynamic backfield running back duo of Nick Chubb (calf) and Kareem Hunt (also calf injury) and wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (shoulder) is a game-time decision, and is more or less doubtful. The Broncos must be licking their chops defensively, as they should clamp-down on the hometown Browns, who have lost their last two games. I feel that the Broncos should win in a low-scoring affair, 24-13.
Fantasy Impact: Tons of fantasy owners are in ‘Byemaggedon’, as the Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Vikings, Steelers and Chargers all have their bye weeks this week, and the owners are scrambling to earnestly pick-up guys, like Browns’ RB D’Ernest Johnson. But my advice to you all? Bench D’Ernest Johnson, even though he should get a bulk of the carries. My expectation is that he’ll get 15-20 carries for only 30-40 yards against a team looking to snap a three-game losing streak on the road.
Sunday 1 PM ET Games
(4-2) Cincinnati Bengals at (5-1) Baltimore Ravens (-6.5 BAL, 46.5)
What an intriguing 1 PM ET game between the two top teams in the AFC North! This match-up has always been entertaining, and this year is no different. So much firepower on both offenses, with MVP candidate, QB Lamar Jackson and his two sidekicks in WR Marquise Brown and Tight End Mark Andrews (the trio have been on a tear as of late) going up against QB Joe Burrow and the WR trio of Rookie of the Year candidate Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Ravens are currently 27-23 against the Bengals, and have won the last five head-to-head battles, including the last three home games at M&T Bank Stadium. However, I expect the Bengals to shockingly claw their way to victory over the black birds, 34-30.
Fantasy Impact: Bench the Ravens’ D/ST. Just like the Ravens-Chargers game last week, you are starting the obvious fantasy-relevant players on both squads. But I would stray away from the Ravens’ D/ST, even though they have scored 10+ points in two of the past three weeks. I expect the over to be covered, so lots of points are to be had on Sunday.
(3-3) Carolina Panthers at (1-5) New York Giants (-3 CAR, 43.5)
From one 3-0 to 3-3 team (the Broncos) to another (the Panthers), this cats’ squad will look to rebound against another heavily-banged-up team offensively on the road. The Giants’ defensively are among the ten worst defensive teams, so an offensively-mired Panthers’ team should take easy advantage at East Rutherford, New Jersey. For the Giants, every starting skill player is questionable, so I have no idea who will take the field on Sunday. The Panthers should be able to force several Daniel Jones’ turnovers and take advantage with shortened field position. IF the Giants rule a majority of their skill players out, I have the Panthers winning yet another close battle, 24-19.
Fantasy Impact: I am not touching anyone on the Giants here to mention, since every skill player has a ‘Q’ tag or worse (except for Evan Engram, who is only worth starting as a bye-week replacement TE. But for the Panthers - start WR Robbie Anderson as a WR2/3. He has been one of the most disappointing receivers this season, as Anderson has had under 60 yards in each game this season, and has only one game with more than three receptions. Despite that, Anderson has been targeted 11, 7 and 11 times the last three games. So, he’s bound to break out, especially against the 26th-best team against opposing wide receivers in the Giants.
(5-1) Green Bay Packers at (2-4) Washington Football Team (-7.5 GB, 48.5)
Well, Aaron Rodgers has been playing pissed-off over the team’s five game winning streak, and that includes his “I own you!” statement after his rushing TD against the division rival Chicago Bears last Sunday. And, what another cupcake game for him in the Washington Football Team, who has the second-worst defense against opposing wideouts. The undefeated home team (the Packers, at 2-0) should have that continue against the hapless (and banged-up) WFT, as they easily cruise to a 37-16 win.
Fantasy Impact: Start RB A.J. Dillon as a bye-week FLEX option. There’s without a doubt that Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Aaron Jones will all have their fantasy helpings against a dreadful WFT defense. But I expect Dillon to get a goal-line TD (or two!) as Chiefs’ RB Darrel Williams did last week. And, Dillon has quietly put up 10, 16 and 6 fantasy points the last three weeks. Perfect opportunity for the former Boston College Eagle.
(3-3) Kansas City Chiefs at (4-2) Tennessee Titans (-4.5 KC, 57.5)
Don’t look now, but the Titans are running away with the AFC South division title, and it’s only October. The next-best team is the 2-4 Indianapolis Colts, whose wins are against two 1-win AFC teams (Dolphins and Jets). The Chiefs, on the other hand, are looking mightily weak, despite being a 4.5 favorite on the road. This game, however, should still be an amazing spectacle, given that the over/under is nearly 60 points. I like the Chiefs to surprisingly storm past the Titans, 32-27.
Fantasy Impact: Start WR Mecole Hardman as a bye-week WR3/FLEX play. Like Robbie Anderson, Hardman is a good start this week, especially if you have two wide receivers on a bye this week and need a fill-in option. Hardman has only one game in which he had under 5 fantasy points, so he will have his share of receptions (and possibly his 2nd TD of the season) against the worst wide receiver defense in the league. Start Hardman with confidence.
(2-3) Atlanta Falcons at (1-5) Miami Dolphins (-2.5 ATL, 47)
What a terrible game for non-Falcons/Dolphins fans. At least there’s Redzone! The Falcons are coming off a win against the Jets and an ensuing bye week, while the Dolphins just lost to the worst team in the Jaguars (who lost 20 straight games prior to the London win last week). Neither team has impressive wins, as the Falcons beat both the Jets and Giants, while the Dolphins barely defeated the two-win Patriots. Regardless, something has got to give. I like the now-healthy Falcons to send Miami to their sixth straight loss, 27-21.
Fantasy Impact: Start RB Mike Davis as a solid RB2. I say this, because although Davis may be the Falcons’ starter at tailback on paper, Cordarelle Patterson is the RB for the team (averaging an insane 17.9 fantasy pts/game). However, the Dolphins are the third-worst team against RBs, allowing at least 1 rushing TD and 70+ rushing yards in every game but their Week 1 win against the Patriots.
(1-4) New York Jets at (2-4) New England Patriots (-7 NE, 42.5)
The annual Bill Belichick versus the Jets rematch game, as the same two teams squared-off in Week 2 in East Rutherford (Pats won, 25-6). Since that win, the Pats are only 1-3, with their lone win against the hapless Texans. Given the low over/under, I expect this one to have tons of offensive misfires, with rookie quarterbacks Zach Wilson (Jets) and Mac Jones (Pats) throwing picks and fumbling early and often. Since the spread favors the hometown Boston team, I think the Pats win in a closer battle, 21-17.
Fantasy Impact: Start RB Michael Carter as a bye-week FLEX option. You would think I would be hesitant to start a rookie RB going against the Patriots on the road, but the Pats are shockingly vulnerable against the run (allowing 65+ yards on the ground in each game this season). I expect Carter to get his share of touches, as he’s had double-digit carries in three of the past four games, and possibly find the end zone (Carter has a rushing TD in back-to-back games).
(0-6) Detroit Lions at (5-1) Los Angeles Rams (-16.5 LAR, 50.5)
Could you find a bigger mismatch on paper this week than this one? (The answer is, surprisingly, yes!). The winless Lions have to face a one-loss Rams team in Inglewood, California. But the story of the pre-game (and during the game) will obviously be the reunion of Lions’ QB Jared Goff, as he and current Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford were involved in an off-season trade for each other. Regardless, the honeymoon of Goff and Rams’ head coach will be short. The Rams stomp all over the Lions, 35-13.
Fantasy Impact: Start WR Amon-Ra St. Brown as a WR3/FLEX. You would think in an expected blowout like this, no Lions’ players would be worth starting in fantasy; but look again. RB D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson (both drafted high) should perform well. And, if you are in a bind at wide receiver and Amon-Ra St. Brown, the former USC product, is still available in your league, I would definitely start him. St. Brown has had at least seven targets in each of the past three games, and has 7+ fantasy points in those games. That screams a bye-week replacement, and should do well again, as long as Rams’ CB Jalen Ramsey is not shadowing him.
Sunday 4 PM ET Games
(2-4) Philadelphia Eagles at (4-2) Las Vegas Raiders (-3 LV, 48.5)
Well, well, well! I expected the Raiders, with new interim head coach Rich Bisaccia, to play poorly against their AFC West rivals in the Broncos; instead, they won decisively (34-24). Up next is a reeling Eagles’ squad (losers of four of their last five games), who have had back-to-back one-score games. A unique aspect of this game is that the cornerbacks and safeties for both teams shutdown wideouts; the Raiders are the fifth-best team against opposing wide receivers, and the Eagles are the fourth-best. I think the Raiders win decisively, 28-16.
Fantasy Impact: Bench RB Miles Sanders. This is a very bold take, as experts believe he’ll be a great RB2 start (especially against a team that has allowed 100+ rushing yards in three straight games), but here is my point: the Eagles do not run the ball enough to be effective (the team got hometown cheers when they simply just called running plays last week!), and I expect the Raiders’ defense to clamp-down defensively against Sanders. Also note that Sanders has yet to go above 8 fantasy points (let alone, double-digits) since Week 1.
(3-3) Chicago Bears at (5-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12.5 TB, 47)
Like the Rams-Lions game, I expect this Bucs’ game to be equally as bad of a blowout, wih Brady breathlessly passing the ball beautifully, besting the Bears. How’s that for alliteration? Anyways, there’s nothing much else to say. Bucs storm the Lake Michigan shore and conquer the Bears, 42-14.
Fantasy Impact: Bench RB Khalil Herbert. I was correct in telling you all to start Herbert last week, as he had a cool 18 fantasy points against the Packers. But this week, he faces the stingy run defense of the Buccaneers, who have allowed under 75 rushng yards in each game and only one rushing TD this season. Expect more of the same against one of the worst offenses in the league.
(1-5) Houston Texans at (6-0) Arizona Cardinals (-17.5 ARI, 47.5)
Remember how I said Lions-Rams is not the biggest mismatch this week? It’s this game in Glendale, Arizona. There’s no question that the Cardinals should have their way on both sides of the ball, and make Texans’ QB Davis Mills look like the rookie that he is. Cardinals swoop and down the Texans, 38-10.
Fantasy Impact: Start A.J. Green as a WR2/WR3. If you remember Green, he was released by the Bengals in the off-season and scopped-up by the Cardinals; since then, he has had exactly six targets in all but one game, and double-digit fantasy points in all but two games this season. You would think he would have a similarly favorable result against one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Sunday 8:30 PM ET Game
(2-4) Indianapolis Colts at (2-3) San Francisco 49ers (-4.5 SF, 44.5)
In a surprise game between two sub-0.500 teams, the visiting Colts travel to Levi’s Stadium to face-off against a Niners’ team that came off a much-needed by week (given the laundry list of injuries at the RB position for the 49ers). You know how you have yucky 1 PM ET games this week? This could be one of them for the late afternoon slate. I think we might see an upset here, however, as the Colts win their third game in their last four matches. Colts surb-stomp the Niners, 30-21.
Fantasy Impact: Start QB Carson Wentz as a bye-week replacement QB. Remember how one of the most injury-prone quarterbacks over the past half-decade is now dealing with two sprained ankles, among a list of other cronic injuries? Well, outside of the Week 3 loss to the Titans, Wentz has had at least 17 fantasy points in the other five games. And, he has thrown 9 TDs, with only a single pick on the season. If you need a backup option and are in a bind, grab Wentz and start him with ease.
Monday 8:30 PM ET Game
(3-2) New Orleans Saints at (2-4) Seattle Seahawks (-4.5 NO, 42.5)
For people that know the recent decade of NFL history, we all know this match as the Beastquake game (Part V). The Saints have won the last two against the Seahawks, but are 1-3 in their last four games in Seattle, including that Wild Card playoff game. So, you know the Monday Night Football announcing crew of Steve Levy, Louis Riddick and Brian Griese will mention this legendary Marshawn Lynch run at least once on-air. But regarding the match, it’s Jameis Winston versus Geno Smith. I expect the Saints to run all over one of the worst run defenses in the NFL in the Seahawks, as the Washington-based team has allowed 90+ yards on the ground in every game this season, including 100+ rushing yards in four of those six games. Saints stifle the Seahawks, 35-11.
Fantasy Impact: Bench WR Tyler Lockett. Since Lockett’s opening two week explosion (24 fantasy points in Week 1, followed by 28 points in Week 2), he hasn’t cracked past eight fantasy points in a single game, including putrid 5, 4 and 4.5 duds in three of the last four weeks. Lockett has failed to reach the end zone in every game since those epic first two games, and has Geno Smith on offense. Good luck.
Well, there you have it. Another NFL preview week in the books. I wonder how I will fare this week, with no London game this time around. To recap (tl;dr):